As I've stated numerous times over the last few years, Big Brother is a game of numbers. The best time to make a big move is when you will have the numbers no matter what happens. Shane just bought himself a one way ticket out of the house because he can't think ahead and do simple math. Lets play out the rest of the week... the nominations stay the same and Frank goes home which leaves Boogie and three floaters. That leaves a 4:8 chance of winning HOH, meaning there is a just as good a chance that someone not in the pack wins (even though Ashley doesn't count because she doesn't stand a chance in hell of winning anything) and giving the rest of the house the power to get rid of a Quack Pack member. If Shane had put up two floaters, Boogie and Frank still think there is an alliance so your chances of winning HOH are 6:8 and if Boogie and Frank were going to bale on the alliance they would be most likely targeting Dan not Shane. With one less floater in the house (or two if Frank and Boogie stayed loyal) you are giving them less votes to gather after you break the alliance. What I'm trying to say is, this move is a week to early. And at the very least, make the move after the POV. Now, if Frank wins POV, you are in all kinds of trouble. To make this a successful move you had to ensure without a question of doubt that Frank goes home. Shane didn't do that.
The person in the house this helps the most is Dan. He has no blood on his hands and can try to convince Boogie that he had nothing to do with it. Boogie will target Shane and Britney now before he goes after Dan. So, Dan just bought himself some more time in the house on Shane and Britney's dime. Not smart on Shane's part at all.
With that said, here are the year's second rankings now that we are back down to ten house guests...
10 - Ashley
She can't win a physical competition, she can't win a mental competition, nobody has a bad thing to say about her, she has zero chance of making the final two. She might make the final three, but then she's gone.
9 - Frank
This was a tough one to rank. If he doesn't win POV this week, he's gone. If he does win he could be around a while. Ultimately, I don't think his odds are very good, he's just to big a target.
8 - Shane
He just put the biggest target in the world on his back and I don't think he recovers. Even Dan has to see that once Frank is gone Shane is his toughest competition.
7 -Britney
She's been doing a little to much wheeling and dealing. I think it's going to bite her in the ass. This weeks nominations are going to reflect on her as much as Shane and that isn't good. I don't think she's crafty enough to win, all her moves are open and obvious and that tends to just get people mad.
6 - Danielle
As dumb as she is, she's made the right friends, the kind that will take her far and will keep the target off her back. I think when push comes to shove she doesn't have the right stuff to win (can't win competitions, isn't smart, isn't deceitful) but she is going to make it far and then anything can happen.
5- Ian
Poor Ian doesn't realize how much he is getting played by the others... or maybe he does, which is why I have him in the middle of the pack. He could easily go either way. I am just not very confident in his ability to win competitions which is going to hurt him eventually.
4 - Jenn
We saw her crumble a little this week, but I still think that she has kept under the radar enough to make a run. If the big guns start taking each other out, she might win a war of contrition.
3 - Boogie
Unless Frank wins the POV, he's going to be around next week and watch out because he will rally the troops and be on the war path. He is just to good as manipulating people to count out.
2 - Joe
This is my long shot guess of the week. Joe could easily be 10 next week, but I think the fact that most people in the house find him super annoying means he could be around a while. And much like Jenn, if the big guns start taking each other out, he might start winning and then all of a sudden he's the guy.
1 - Dan
Thanks to Shane, Dan is looking pretty at the moment. He isn't going to be Boogie's target any longer and since Dan wasn't the one who put Frank and Boogie on the block, there is still a chance he can make a deal with Boogie. Dan is a master at getting other people to do his dirty work and that's what wins Big Brother.
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